Category Archives: Mean Reversion

Improving A Hedge Fund Investment – Cantab Capital’s Quantitative Aristarchus Fund

In this post I am going to take a look at what an investor can do to improve a hedge fund investment through the use of dynamic capital allocation. For the purposes of illustration I am going to use Cantab … Continue reading

Posted in CTA, Dynamic Capital Model, Futures, Mean Reversion, Meta-Strategy, Momentum | Tagged , , , , | Leave a comment

Identifying Drivers of Trading Strategy Performance

Building a winning strategy, like the one in the e-Mini S&P500 futures described here is only half the challenge:  it remains for the strategy architect to gain an understanding of the sources of strategy alpha, and risk.  This means identifying … Continue reading

Posted in Econometrics, Machine Learning, Mean Reversion, Momentum, Performance Testing, Strategy Development, Systematic Strategies, Volatility Modeling | Tagged , , , | Comments Off on Identifying Drivers of Trading Strategy Performance

The Lazarus Effect

A perennial favorite with investors, presumably because they are easy to understand and implement, are trades based on a regularly occurring pattern, preferably one that is seasonal in nature.  A well-known example is the Christmas effect, wherein equities generally make … Continue reading

Posted in Mean Reversion, Pattern Trading, S&P500 Index, Seasonal Effects | Comments Off on The Lazarus Effect

Combining Momentum and Mean Reversion Strategies

The Fama-French World For many years now the “gold standard” in factor models has been the 1996 Fama-French 3-factor model: Here r is the portfolio’s expected rate of return, Rf is the risk-free return rate, and Km is the return of the market portfolio. … Continue reading

Posted in Factor Models, Mean Reversion, Momentum, VIX Index, Volatility Modeling | Comments Off on Combining Momentum and Mean Reversion Strategies

Developing Statistical Arbitrage Strategies Using Cointegration

In his latest book (Algorithmic Trading: Winning Strategies and their Rationale, Wiley, 2013) Ernie Chan does an excellent job of setting out the procedures for developing statistical arbitrage strategies using cointegration.  In such mean-reverting strategies, long positions are taken in … Continue reading

Posted in Cointegration, Johansen, Matlab, Mean Reversion, Pairs Trading, Statistical Arbitrage, Strategy Development, Systematic Strategies | Comments Off on Developing Statistical Arbitrage Strategies Using Cointegration

A Practical Application of Regime Switching Models to Pairs Trading

In the previous post I outlined some of the available techniques used for modeling market states.  The following is an illustration of how these techniques can be applied in practice.    You can download this post in pdf format here. The chart … Continue reading

Posted in ARMA, Econometrics, ETFs, Markov Model, Mean Reversion, Pairs Trading, Regime Switching, Statistical Arbitrage | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off on A Practical Application of Regime Switching Models to Pairs Trading

Modeling Asset Volatility

I am planning a series of posts on the subject of asset volatility and option pricing and thought I would begin with a survey of some of the central ideas. The attached presentation on Modeling Asset Volatility sets out the foundation … Continue reading

Posted in Black Noise, Cointegration, Derivatives, Direction Prediction, Dispersion, Forecasting, Fractional Brownian Motion, Fractional Cointegration, Fractional Integration, Long Memory, Mean Reversion, Momentum, Multifactor Models, Options, Pink Noise, REGARCH, Regime Shifts, Volatility Modeling, White Noise | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off on Modeling Asset Volatility