Category Archives: Time Series Modeling

Algorithmic Trading

MOVING FROM RESEARCH TO TRADING I have written recently about the comparative advantages of different programming languages in the context of research and trading (see here).  My sense of it is that there is no single “ideal” programming language – … Continue reading

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Enhancing Mutual Fund Returns With Market Timing

Summary In this article, I will apply market timing techniques to several popular mutual funds. The market timing approach produces annual rates of return that are 3% to 7% higher, with lower risk, than an equivalent buy and hold mutual … Continue reading

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Measuring Toxic Flow for Trading & Risk Management

A common theme of microstructure modeling is that trade flow is often predictive of market direction.  One concept in particular that has gained traction is flow toxicity, i.e. flow where resting orders tend to be filled more quickly than expected, while … Continue reading

Posted in Algorithmic Trading, ARMA, Direction Prediction, Econometrics, Econophysics, Forecasting, High Frequency Finance, Market Microstructure, Order Flow, Risk Management, Time Series Modeling, Toxic Flow | Tagged , , , | Comments Off

Forecasting Financial Markets – Part 1: Time Series Analysis

The presentation in this post covers a number of important topics in forecasting, including: Stationary processes and random walks Unit roots and autocorrelation ARMA models Seasonality Model testing Forecasting Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests for unit roots Also included are a number … Continue reading

Posted in ARMA, Econometrics, Forecasting, Purchasing Power Parity, Time Series Modeling, Unit Roots, White Noise | Tagged , , , , , | Comments Off

Resources for Quantitative Analysts

Two of the smartest econometricians I know are Prof. Stephen Taylor of Lancaster University, and Prof. James Davidson of Exeter University. I recall spending many profitable hours in the 1980′s with Stephen’s book Modelling Financial Time Series, which I am … Continue reading

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