Forecasting Financial Markets – Part 1: Time Series Analysis

The presentation in this post covers a number of important topics in forecasting, including:

  • Stationary processes and random walks
  • Unit roots and autocorrelation
  • ARMA models
  • Seasonality
  • Model testing
  • Forecasting
  • Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron tests for unit roots

Also included are a number of detailed worked examples, including:

  1. ARMA Modeling
  2. Box Jenkins methodology
  3. Modeling the US Wholesale Price Index
  4. Pesaran & Timmermann study of excess equity returns
  5. Purchasing Power Parity

     

     

    About Jonathan

    Dr Jonathan Kinlay is the Head of Quantitative Trading at Systematic Strategies, LLC, a systematic hedge fund that deploys high frequency trading strategies using news-based algorithms. Dr Kinlay, was the founder and General Partner of the Caissa Capital hedge fund, whose volatility arbitrage strategies were developed by Dr Kinlay’s investment research firm, Investment Analytics. Caissa, which managed $400M in assets, was ranked by FIMAT as the top performing fund in its class in 2004. Dr Kinlay went on to establish the Proteom Capital, whose statistical arbitrage strategies were based on pattern recognition techniques used in DNA sequencing. Dr Kinlay was formerly Global Head of Model Review at the US investment bank Bear Stearns. Dr Kinlay holds a PhD in economics and has held positions on the faculty at New York University Stern School of Business, Carnegie Mellon and Reading Universities. Dr Kinlay is a regular conference speaker and writer on investment research, hedge fund investing and quantitative finance. Kinlay was a member of England’s chess team that won gold in the World Student Olympiad in Mexico in 1978. He is the son of Fleet Street editor James Kinlay and father of British actress Antonia Kinlay.
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